1
endeeaich A
166.3starter PPG
Gibbs, Barkley and Kyren create the league’s best RB/flex engine; Herbert, Fairbairn and Houston D/ST add quality.
WR room leans on Higgins and an aging Evans; too many late tight ends, and the bench RBs are weak.
League overview
Best roster to worst roster
This is a power ranking, not a claim that the order is certain. It begins with each team’s best legal weekly lineup under QB–2RB–2WR–TE–2FLEX–K–DEF–IDP, then adjusts close calls for depth, concentration and availability. The raw starter projection is shown so you can see where judgment changed the order.
Read the tiers more than the exact slots. Endeeaich is the clearest preseason No. 1. Teams 2–7 are separated by roughly one normal touchdown, so health can reorder that group immediately.
2
Goldenblaze A−
160.8starter PPG
Lamb–Rice plus Hampton–Tuten supplies league-winning ceiling; Broncos D/ST is a scoring-format edge.
Rookie/role volatility is high, TE is weak, and using two premium roster spots on Goff and Mahomes adds little weekly value.
3
BillNY A−
160.8starter PPG
Burrow, Chase Brown, Achane and Collins form a true four-player core; Campbell, Rams D/ST and Myers are premium format fits.
Burrow/WR health risk, weak RB insurance, several speculative receivers and destructive Week 6–7 bye clusters.
4
zkane98 A−
159.9starter PPG
Ja’Marr Chase and Bowers are elite anchors; Dak, Kittle and a deep IDP group give weekly ceiling.
Josh Jacobs is a modest RB2 in this model, skill-position depth falls quickly, and excess defensive players occupy upside slots.
5
TFAPaladin B+
159.2starter PPG
Amon-Ra, Garrett Wilson and McBride may be the league’s best WR–WR–TE trio; useful flex depth.
Lawrence offers little QB edge, RB2 is fragile, and eight likely contributors share the Week 11 bye.
6
MichelleNuss B+
156.4starter PPG
The deepest balanced roster: Cook, Etienne, Pickens, Adams, Andrews, Purdy, Oluokun and strong specialists.
Fewer truly dominant weekly players than the teams above; duplicate QB/K/DEF selections reduce lottery-ticket depth.
7
iambeyoncealways B
155.4starter PPG
Bijan is a hammer; Ladd, Egbuka, Sutton and Pittsburgh D/ST make a solid middle.
Caleb Williams must justify the QB slot, and Warren/Monangai are a middling RB2–flex combination.
8
BuiltbyTacoBell B
≈154.0starter PPG
Jonathan Taylor, JSN and Nabers give this roster a formidable top three, with unusual RB depth.
Jaxson Dart is a major single-QB uncertainty; Barner, kicker and IDP are below-average starting slots.
9
BoomRoaste… B−
153.5starter PPG
Jeanty, Love and Olave can all beat projection; Maye supplies the completion-scoring upside this format wants.
Very rookie-dependent, Jake Ferguson is an ordinary TE, and the proven bench skill depth is limited.
10
minutesteelers B−
152.8starter PPG
Puka, Derrick Henry and Zay Flowers are strong anchors; receiver depth is good.
Lamar’s lower completion volume matters here, RB2 is uncertain and Raiders D/ST is a weak starting choice.
11
SteelDaisies B−
≈154.1starter PPG
McCaffrey still gives overall-RB1 upside; Nix/Stafford and Loveland are solid.
CMC availability drives everything, RB2 is Rico Dowdle, and the IDP/bench construction lacks tackle-floor depth.
12
ReturnOfTheBach C+
149.8starter PPG
Kenneth Walker, A.J. Brown, Tyler Warren and Seahawks D/ST give usable pillars.
A second QB plus six IDPs in a one-IDP lineup consumed too many spots; RB2 and flex scoring are thin.
13
NJNFootball C+
148.0starter PPG
London, Javonte, TreVeyon and Jameson form a coherent core with reasonable depth.
No top-end RB, an aging Kelce, ordinary QB scoring and a weak second flex cap the weekly ceiling.
14
ec1243 C
145.7starter PPG
Allen and Jefferson are elite, while Bucky and Skattebo can support them.
Allen plus Jayden Daniels is a costly one-QB duplication; five IDPs leave WR2/flex badly underpowered. A trade could improve this ranking quickly.
Your roster
BillNY: a contender with concentrated failure points
The core is strong enough to win the league. The roster is less robust than its best lineup, which means early waiver work and bye-week planning are unusually important.
What you did well
- Four-player core: Burrow 42.3, Achane 16.8, Chase Brown 16.1 and Collins 15.0 projected PPG.
- Scoring-specific edges: Campbell is the model’s LB1, Jason Myers its K1, and the Rams are a top-five D/ST here.
- Reasonable QB protection: Bryce Young does not match Burrow, but he prevents a zero in a 14-team market.
Where you are exposed
- RB depth: Chris Rodriguez and an Achilles-recovering Najee Harris are the only insurance behind both starters.
- Availability: Burrow, Godwin, Tyson, Najee and Keon all carry live health/role questions.
- Concentration: Kincaid, Shakir, Keon and Skyler Bell all depend on one Buffalo passing offense.
Immediate management plan
- Use IR on Jordyn Tyson if the league permits it, then add the best active RB with a plausible path to 10 touches.
- Do not treat the late rookie WRs as permanent holdings; churn the last two bench spots aggressively.
- Begin planning Week 6 now, even if it means accepting one-week replacements before waivers get competitive.
What has to go right
- Burrow needs roughly 14–15 healthy fantasy starts so his massive completion total remains a weekly advantage.
- Achane and Brown must retain high-value receiving and goal-line roles.
- Nico must remain Houston’s alpha target; one of Tate, Godwin or Shakir needs to become a dependable third weekly receiver.
- Your less glamorous edges—Campbell, Rams D/ST and Myers—must actually convert their favorable projections into points.
What could tank it
- A long Burrow absence combined with only a mid-tier Bryce Young replacement.
- An injury to either starting RB; the current backups project far below replacement.
- Tyson’s hamstring recovery slipping, Godwin losing volume, and the Buffalo receivers cannibalizing one another.
- Taking avoidable losses during the two worst bye clusters rather than planning around them.
The schedule trap
Week 6 Burrow, Chase Brown, Achane and Jack Campbell are all off. Week 7 Kincaid, Shakir, Chris Rodriguez, Keon Coleman and Skyler Bell are all off. Your second tight end, Brenton Strange, also has Week 7 off, so he cannot cover Kincaid’s bye. Week 6 is likely a planned-loss candidate unless the bench changes; Week 7 is solvable only through waivers.
The decision you keep revisiting
Burrow + Collins vs Allen + DJ Moore
The answer changes depending on whether you prioritize mean projection or availability. On the repaired league model, the pair you actually drafted is better when everyone plays.
| Component | Actual roster | Alternative | Actual edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Quarterback | Joe Burrow · 42.32 PPG | Josh Allen · 41.80 PPG | +0.52 |
| Wide receiver | Nico Collins · 14.98 PPG | DJ Moore · 11.92 PPG | +3.06 |
| Pair total | 57.30 PPG | 53.72 PPG | +3.58 |
| Projected 17-game difference | If both pairs play every week | +60.9 points | |
My decision today
I would keep Burrow and Collins. Allen was a defensible choice at 2.01, but not if the opportunity cost was downgrading Collins to DJ Moore. The WR loss is about six times larger than the model’s QB difference. In this specific counterfactual, you did not make the wrong decision.
Why Allen still feels safer
From 2022–2025, Allen missed zero games because of injury (his one-snap Week 18 appearance in 2024 was effectively rest), while Burrow lost 16 games to injury: seven after the 2023 wrist injury and nine after the 2025 turf-toe injury. That is a real, material advantage for Allen—not something PPG should erase.
Healthy week: (Burrow + Nico) − (Allen + DJ) = +3.58
Burrow-missed week: (Bryce + Nico) − (Allen + DJ) = −3.98
Break-even: 60.9 ÷ (3.58 + 3.98) ≈ 8.1 Burrow absences
Burrow-missed week: (Bryce + Nico) − (Allen + DJ) = −3.98
Break-even: 60.9 ÷ (3.58 + 3.98) ≈ 8.1 Burrow absences
Translation: using Bryce Young as the actual replacement, the Allen/DJ pair overtakes the Burrow/Nico pair only if Burrow misses about nine more games than Allen, or if DJ Moore materially beats Nico relative to projection. The alternative also would have placed Allen, DJ, Kincaid, Shakir, Keon and Skyler Bell on the same Buffalo offense and Week 7 bye. It raises durability while worsening roster correlation and bye concentration.
Opponent spotlight
TFAPaladin: elite pass catchers, narrow escape routes
Projected fifth, and close enough to BillNY to be a real threat. The roster’s weekly identity is excellent; its calendar and contingency planning are not.
Strengths
- Amon-Ra (18.3), Garrett Wilson (14.1) and McBride (14.8) give elite target volume at three required positions.
- Breece Hall supplies RB1 receiving upside.
- Christian Watson and Rashid Shaheed were strong values and create multiple flex combinations.
Weaknesses
- David Montgomery is a modest RB2; Lloyd and Corum need injuries ahead of them to become reliable.
- Trevor Lawrence must create value through completions without elite rushing.
- The roster spends ten slots on WRs but only four on RBs, and Brissett is weak QB insurance.
Season hinge
- Lawrence must finish closer to the QB5 tier than the replacement tier.
- Breece needs a durable, high-catch workload.
- One of Watson, Shaheed or Michael Wilson must become a stable weekly flex.
What can sink TFAPaladin
Week 11 MarShawn Lloyd, Blake Corum, Romeo Doubs, Edgerrin Cooper, Rashid Shaheed, Christian Watson, Trey Smack and Packers D/ST all share the bye. Week 13 removes both Breece Hall and Garrett Wilson; Week 14 removes Trey McBride and Michael Wilson. This team could be excellent over the full season and still lose playoff positioning through three concentrated schedule weeks.
Head-to-head with BillNY
TFAPaladin has the safer pass-catching foundation and the better tight end. BillNY has the better quarterback projection, stronger starting RB pair, and larger K/DEF/IDP edges. TFAPaladin becomes the better roster if Lawrence breaks out and one backup RB gains a starting role; BillNY stays ahead if Burrow is healthy and Achane/Brown remain intact.
Round-by-round audit
Every BillNY pick, graded
Grades judge the decision at its draft cost using the repaired custom-scoring board, roster construction and information available on draft day. Achane was a pre-draft keeper, so his mark grades the value delivered—not a live selection decision.
1.14
A
Chase Brown
Model rank No. 10 at pick 14; a legitimate RB anchor. Only blemish is the shared Week 6 bye with Achane.
2.01
A−
Nico Collins
Excellent WR1 and the right side of the Allen/DJ counterfactual. Slightly ahead of his model rank, but the tier justified it.
3.14
A+
De’Von Achane
A top-10 overall model player retained at pick 42. This is the roster’s largest piece of surplus value.
4.01
A
Joe Burrow
Model rank No. 28 at pick 43 and projected QB1. Completion scoring makes the ceiling real; durability prevents an A+.
5.14
C+
Carnell Tate
Market price was fair, but the model had him around No. 120. You paid for the rookie ceiling before securing a stable WR3.
6.01
C
Dalton Kincaid
A starting need, but his 9.5 PPG projection sits at TE replacement level. Name and upside exceeded modeled value.
7.14
B
Chris Godwin
Useful veteran volume at a fair market price. Health and age make him a floor pick rather than a major edge.
8.01
A+
Jack Campbell
The model’s LB1 and No. 66 overall at pick 99. A sharp use of this league’s tackle scoring.
9.14
B+
Khalil Shakir
Stable reception-based fit taken below market ADP. Buffalo target competition limits the ceiling.
10.01
D
Chris Rodriguez Jr.
The model projected only 6.2 PPG and ranked him near No. 450. RB need was real, but this was far too early for this profile.
11.14
A
Rams D/ST
Top-five defense in these unusual points/yards bands, acquired about 70 spots below the model rank.
12.01
C
Brenton Strange
Cheap TE insurance, but he shares Kincaid’s Week 7 bye and therefore fails the most predictable backup job.
13.14
C
Jordyn Tyson
Strong long-term value if an IR slot exists, but he entered draft day designated to return from IR with roughly a two-month hamstring timetable.
14.01
A+
Jason Myers
The model’s K1 and No. 72 overall at pick 183. This is exactly how to exploit a nonstandard scoring system late.
15.14
D
Jared Verse
A second IDP was reasonable, but a low-tackle DL is a weak insurance profile when linebackers score more steadily.
16.01
B
Bryce Young
Burrow’s history made QB2 necessary, and Young has a different bye. The ceiling is modest, but the roster logic is sound.
17.14
C+
Najee Harris
A sensible no-cost RB lottery ticket after signing with New York, tempered by recovery from a 2025 torn Achilles and an uncertain role.
18.01
C
Germie Bernard
Acceptable rookie swing at this cost; projected contribution is low and the roster already had several speculative receivers.
19.14
C−
Keon Coleman
The acquisition cost is tiny, but target competition, a foot/toe issue and disappointing recent volume make the path narrow.
20.01
B−
Skyler Bell
A fine final-round rookie dart. The only penalty is duplicating yet another Buffalo receiver instead of diversifying outcomes.
The pick most likely to make you smile in December
De’Von Achane at 3.14
He is projected as the No. 9 overall player in this scoring system, yet costs pick 42 because of the keeper structure. If he simply delivers his median outcome, you received roughly two rounds of free value. If his receiving workload or touchdown rate spikes, he is the player on this roster most capable of becoming a weekly matchup-breaker. The fun sleeper answer is Khalil Shakir—a Bills receiver acquired at 9.14—but Achane is the best answer.
How this was built
Method, limits and sources
Roster reconstruction: all 280 completed selections came from the Sleeper draft endpoint for draft 1336509015617699840. Player IDs were joined to draft_board_2026.csv. Each raw starter total is the highest-projected legal lineup: 1 QB, 2 RB, 2 WR, 1 TE, 2 RB/WR/TE flex, 1 K, 1 DEF and 1 IDP. Name matching and Sleeper projections were used only for late players absent from the repo’s top-500 board.
Important limitation: projections are means, not outcomes. They do not fully price correlated injuries, depth-chart news after the source update, opponent schedules or your ability to trade. Rookie-heavy teams have wider ranges than their decimal score suggests. Approximate totals identify lineups containing a player without a direct four-source row.
- Sleeper completed draft picks and Sleeper 2026 projection feed.
- Local model inputs: 2026 custom-scoring board, league scoring rules, and model documentation.
- Availability context: Josh Allen career log, Joe Burrow team bio/log, and the Bengals’ documented seven missed games after his 2023 wrist injury.
- Late-pick context: Giants signing Najee Harris after his Achilles injury, Jordyn Tyson IR report, and Keon Coleman outlook.
- Visual direction: Pentagram’s Thursday Night Football identity study and the official 2026 NFL field-marking guidance. NBS is an original fictional identity and does not use league, club or existing network marks.
Generated September 4, 2026. This is a decision aid for a high-variance game, not a guarantee. Keep the page on your LAN or print it to PDF from the browser.
Opponent round-by-round audit
Every TFAPaladin pick, graded
These grades use exactly the same standard as the BillNY audit: custom-scoring projection value at the selection, lineup need, roster construction and information available on draft day. Christian Watson was a pre-draft keeper, so his mark grades the value delivered rather than a live choice.
1.04
A
Amon-Ra St. Brown
An elite reception-volume anchor in a league that rewards every catch. Slightly ahead of model rank No. 8, but a very safe foundational pick.
2.11
A−
Breece Hall
Model rank No. 29 at pick 25 and a bargain against market ADP. Strong RB1 receiving upside, with workload uncertainty keeping it below an A.
3.04
A+
Trey McBride
The model’s TE1 and No. 22 overall at pick 32. He creates a weekly positional advantage without first-round opportunity cost.
4.11
B+
David Montgomery
A sensible RB2 close to model value. Touchdown and role dependence make him solid rather than spectacular.
5.04
A+
Garrett Wilson
Model rank No. 33 at pick 60. This completed an exceptional WR–WR–TE target-volume foundation.
6.11
C+
Michael Wilson
Taken 44 spots ahead of the model rank. A usable flex candidate, but the cost assumed a breakout before one was necessary.
7.04
D+
MarShawn Lloyd
An uncertain-role RB selected nearly 100 spots ahead of the model. The position need was right; the specific price was not.
8.11
C−
Blake Corum
Another contingent-value back acquired well above projection. Pairing him with Lloyd left the roster without a dependable RB3.
9.04
C+
Romeo Doubs
Reasonable receiver depth, but a modest projection and another Week 11 bye added more congestion than weekly upside.
10.11
A−
Trevor Lawrence
A high-completion starter obtained 27 spots below model rank. Waiting this long was risky, but the result was excellent.
11.04
B+
Edgerrin Cooper
Filled the required IDP slot at approximately fair model value with the preferred linebacker tackle-floor profile.
12.11
A+
Rashid Shaheed
Model rank No. 93 at pick 165. One of the draft’s strongest pure values, even after accounting for weekly volatility.
13.04
A+
Christian Watson
A top-70 model player retained at pick 172. Outstanding keeper value, though it deepened the Week 11 bye problem.
14.11
C−
Dontayvion Wicks
A low-cost upside receiver, but TFAPaladin already had ample WR depth and still needed more reliable RB and QB insurance.
15.04
B−
Trey Smack
Acceptable late kicker pricing, but the model viewed him as a below-average starter and his Week 11 bye compounded the roster pileup.
16.11
D
Jacoby Brissett
A second quarterback was sensible; a player without a dependable starting job does not meaningfully insure Lawrence.
17.04
C
Isaac TeSlaa
Fine as a late athletic dart, but it was yet another receiver on a roster already carrying more WRs than it could realistically use.
18.11
B+
Packers D/ST
Model rank No. 161 at pick 249 was strong value. The grade stops short of A because its Week 11 bye joined seven teammates.
19.04
C
Cade Otton
A playable McBride backup with a different bye, but the low ceiling offered less roster-changing upside than an RB lottery ticket.
20.11
B−
Jack Bech
A perfectly reasonable final-round receiver swing. The player value is fine; the position added little to an already crowded WR bench.
TFAPaladin draft verdict: B+
The first five rounds were excellent, and the Lawrence, Shaheed and Watson values restored considerable strength later. The middle-round Lloyd–Corum sequence and the failure to build useful quarterback or running-back insurance prevent an A-range grade. The roster is talented enough to contend, but its Week 11 concentration makes active waiver and trade management mandatory.